JAQM Volume 4, Issue 2 - June 30, 2009

Recession Prediction Modeling

Pdf Version

Contents

An Econometric Approach regarding Anticrisis Measures (p 126)
Eugen Stefan PECICAN

It is the purpose of this article to discuss certain econometric elements with a view to perceive the economic crisis signals and especially to reduce recession effects and overcome such a stage of the economic cycle. Together economic theory, including policy measures and econometric methods provide certain chances to hurry up the end of depression. Thus, a simultaneous equation model adopted to simulate policy targets can be recommended in view to obtain new elements for an impact analysis and also for prognosis of main economic indicators.

The Behavior of Credit Risk Evaluation Models under Recession and the Introduction of a General Model Based on Semantic Interoperability and Nomograms (p 132)
Laura POPESCU, Andreea DIOSTEANU, Anca Nicoleta POPESCU

The article analysis the old credit risk evaluation models performance and highlights the failure of complex econometric models to predict recession. Furthermore, this article is intended to propose a software solution for implementing a general, orientative consumption credit risk evaluation scoring model based on semantic web. The use of semantic web enables us to discover the common features from analyzing the evaluation forms used by several banks. These characteristics are taken into account when designing the model. The application will have a web interface and the weights and the cut-off value will be represented with the help of nomograms. This software product is intended to offer clients guidance and to provide, with a certain amount of risk, the information related to the chances that client has for obtaining a credit.

Analysis of the Relationships of Factors Affecting Rice Consumption in a Targeted Region in Ekiti – State, Nigeria (p 146)
Joseph Omoniyi BASORUN

In Nigeria today, there is the growing concern for food security, with particular focus on rice being a staple food. If effective policies must be made to impact rice production, it is important to appreciate the phenomena underlying the consumption in the first place. This study, therefore, examines the rice consumers in a rice producing region in Ekiti State Nigeria vis-à-vis the interrelated factors influencing consumption. Five hundred (500) respondents were randomly selected and interviewed in Eighteen (18) of the sixty nine (69) residential quarters that constitute the six (6) Local Government Areas (LGAs) which represent the study region. The study employed the Pearson’s Correlation test of the consumers variables. Findings discovered strong relationship between; (i) Sex of consumers, (ii) their level of education, (iii) income, (iv) household size, (v) the source of the local rice consumed, (vi) availability of the rice, (vii) how regularly if is consumed, (viii) the quality, (ix) price, and (x) the need to strengthen production at source. Suggestions for policy measures were offered based on research findings.

The Volatility Premium Risk: Valuation and Forecasting (p 154 )
Bogdan NEGREA

Empirical studies, such as Lamoureux and Lastrapes (1993), Guo (1998), Fouque et al. (2000) show that the market price of volatility risk is nonzero and time varying. This paper provides a theoretical investigation of the market price of volatility risk. We consider that the market price of volatility risk is a function of two variables: the price of underlying asset and its volatility. We suggest a closed-form solution for the price of volatility risk under the conditions of stochastic volatility and of correlation between the underlying asset price and its volatility. This formula involves in a direct way the unobservable market price of volatility risk. We prove that the correlation between underlying price and its volatility has no impact on the price of volatility risk. Finally, we present empirical results using the prices of CAC 40 index and of CAC 40 index call options from January 2006 to December 2007.

Logistic Regression to Describe How the Relationship between Social Connection and Self-Rated Health Varies by Gender (p 166)
Michael A. LEWIS, Eri NOGUCHI

Social Scientists and health researchers have allocated a great deal of time trying to understand the social correlates of health outcomes, some in the question of the association between social relationships and such outcomes. This paper builds on this work by exploring the association between how connected one feels to her or his neighborhood and the chance that one reported that she or he was in poor health. Using logistic regression on a data set of 1,899 females and 1,521 males from the United States we found that, for both males and females, those who reported that their neighbors give them a sense of community were less likely to report that they were in poor health, but this association was stronger for females than for males.

Research about Implementing E-Procord – New Medical and Modeling Approaches in It&C Age Applied on Cardiovascular Profile Evaluation at Molecular Level (p 175)
Dan–Andrei SITAR–TAUT, Loredana MOCEAN, Adela–Viviana SITAR–TAUT

This paper offers a new homogeneous approach and intends to provide a starting model with implemented elements useful in medicine and national health policies proposals. The final model will be entitled e-ProCord and it will represent one of the aims for an important research project in the field of cardiovascular evaluation at molecular level.

Reliability Sampling Plans: A Review and some New Results (p 190)
Alexandru ISAIC-MANIU, Viorel Gh. VODA

In this work we present a large area of aspects related to the problem of sampling inspection in the case of reliability. First we discuss the actual status of this domain, mentioning the newest approaches (from a technical view point) such as HALT and HASS and the statistical perspective. After a brief description of the general procedure in sampling inspection, we offer what we did call here as „personalized procedures”: this means that we take into consideration the specific statistical law for time-to-failure. The original part refers to the construction of (n, 0) sampling plans and the use of ISO standard 2859 (MILSTD 105 E, the American original) in order to derive sampling plans by linking the AQL indicator (a defective fraction, in fact) to the hazard rate function. Some examples are given and necessary tables are provided also.

Estimating the Project's Utility by Means of Harmonization Theory (p 202 )
Avner BEN-YAIR, Dimitri GOLENKO-GINZBURG, Doron GREENBERG, Zohar LASLO

This paper is a generalization of our previous publications [2,19-20] where some newly developed models of the harmonization theory, together with various practical applications, have been outlined. The goal of the paper under consideration is to describe in depth both the general concepts of the harmonization theory and the fitness of the latter by citing an example from a widely used class of stochastic network projects (PERT-COST models). Harmonization theory is a multi-parametric optimization model in order to maximize the system's utility as a generalized quality measure of the system's functioning. We have implemented all the principles of the developed theory in a PERT-COST project and have outlined all the mechanisms to evaluate the project's utility. A numerical example is presented.

Orthogonality Measurement for Homogenous Projects-Bases (p 225 )
Ion IVAN, Andrei SANDU, Marius POPA

The homogenous projects-base concept is defined. Next, the necessary steps to create a homogenous projects-base are presented. A metric system is built, which then will be used for analyzing projects. The indicators which are meaningful for analyzing a homogenous projects-base are selected. The given hypothesis is experimentally verified. The projects are analyzed and measured to establish the quality level of the funds spending. Some examples of measurement are offered in this paper. The most important characteristics of the projects are identified and presented. Also, a quality characteristic framework of homogenous projects is provided by this paper. The framework is used to develop metrics that cover the properties and requirement of the projects. The implementation of the project characteristics is made within a software application, called Projects-Bases Operations Software (PBOS).

Security Management in a Multimedia System (p 237 )
Emanuil REDNIC, Andrei TOMA

In database security, the issue of providing a level of security for multimedia information is getting more and more known. For the moment the security of multimedia information is done through the security of the database itself, in the same way, for all classic and multimedia records. So what is the reason for the creation of a security management system and a set of security rules for this type of information? The reason is the fast progress of multimedia information usage in enterprise activities. More and more distributed activities are based on processing multimedia information in real time, which is why the implementation of such a security system is important.

The Role of Amenities and Quality of life in Agriculture Productivity Rural Economic Growth - A Case Study of Sindh (p 248 )
F.M. SHAIKH, M. SALEEM RAHPOTO

The present study investigates the role of amenities facilities on quality of life in Rural Sindh and how it reflects the agriculture production in Rural Sindh. A structural model of regional economic growth is estimated using data from 200 rural households by using simple random technique, for this study a structured questionnaire designed to get the reliable results from the chosen sample. Five districts Larkana, Shikarpur, Jacobabad, Khairpur and Sukkur of Rural Sindh where sample has been conducted. It was revealed that education as well amenities facilities has positively associated with the agricultural production. It was observed that rural areas where facilities like, road, education, health and amenities facilities were there they have impact on the Agriculture production and enjoying the highest level of yield compare with the traditional farming activities. In areas where Farmers were educated and they were using all the modern implements and their usage. Results suggested that amenity characteristics can be organized into consistent and meaningful empirical measures that move beyond ad hoe description of amenities. In addition to insights into the influence of local characteristics ranging from tax burdens between amenities, quality of life, and local economic performance exits in various villages of rural Sindh. It was further revealed that only 20% of the villages of all five districts where quality of drinking water was available.

Book Review (p 257 )
Bogdan Vasile ILEANU

Book Review on
Econometrics ("Econometrié")
by Régis BOURBONNAIS
Published in Dunod, Paris, 2009