JAQM Volume 4, Issue 3 - September 30, 2009

Quantitative Methods in Demographics

Pdf Version

Contents

Population Growth and Democracy: An Extreme Value Analyzes in Romania’s Case (p 259)
Mihai Ioan MUTASCU

The paper analyzes empirically, in Romania’s case, the relationships between population growth (dependent variable) and the dimensions of democracy (independent variables). The analysis is based on the construction of a linear “Extreme Value Model”. In Romania’s case, the probability of annual population growth to be more then 10.000 persons could be high, if the state is a dictatorial monarchy, the political regime durability is high and the abort is legal. In such conditions, the type of political regime and the abort restrictions are brought forward by the democratization intensity and political regime durability. In other words, the main results show that, in Romania’s case, the probability of annual population growth to be more then 10.000 persons could be high, if the level of democratization intensity is low and the political regime durability is high.

Child Mortality in a Developing Country: A Statistical Analysis (p 270)
Md. Jamal UDDIN, Md. Zakir HOSSAIN, Mohammad Ohid ULLAH

This study uses data from the “Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey (BDHS] 1999-2000” to investigate the predictors of child (age 1-4 years] mortality in a developing country like Bangladesh. The cross-tabulation and multiple logistic regression techniques have been used to estimate the predictors of child mortality. The cross-tabulation analysis shows that parents’ education is the vital factor associated with child mortality risk but in logistic regression analysis only the father’s education has been found significant to reducing child mortality. Occupation of father has been found a significant characteristic in both analyzes, further mother standard of living index, breastfeeding status, birth order has substantial impact on child mortality in Bangladesh. The findings also show that in both statistical analyzes maternal health care variables such as timing of first antenatal check and tetanus toxoid (TT] during pregnancy has momentous effect on child mortality. Finally these findings specified that an increase in parents’ education, improve health care services which should in turn raise child survival and should decrease child mortality in Bangladesh.

Natality Impact on Recent Demographic Ageing Dynamics in Romania (p 284 )
Constanta MIHAESCU, Ileana NICULESCU-ARON, Dana PETRE (COLIBABA)

The decrease of Romanian natality after the abrogation of the pronatalist-coercive legislation at the end of 1989 was a natural and expected reaction. The surprise was generated by the speed and the magnitude of the fertility decrease and, thus, of the natality, which not even the specialists managed to predict. In this paper we elaborate a statistical model, which evaluates the impact of this evolution on the acceleration of the demographic ageing process.

The Role of Statistics in Kosovo Enterprises (p 295 )
Muje GJONBALAJ, Marjan DEMA, Iliriana MIFTARI

Considering science as the main contributor to contemporary developments has encouraged us to raise a scientific discussion regarding the role of statistics in business decision-making and economic development. Statistics, as an applicative science, is growing and being widely applied in different fields and professions. Statistical thinking is becoming a daily necessity in enterprises. The main purpose of this survey was to ascertain in what levels main enterprise managers in Kosovo are using statistical methods in their business decision-making. For this purpose 85 managers of the main companies in Kosovo have been interviewed. The analysis of the gathered data was performed by Chi-Square Test, Asymp.Sig(2 sided) and Cramer’s V. These analyses comprise the central focus of this survey. The data was processed by Statistical Program for Social Sciences (SPSS). Statistical approach and methodology used in this research has made it easier for us to draw conclusions and recommendations.

Do Fiscal Deficits Raise Interest Rates in Nigeria? A Vector Autoregression Approach (p 306)
Ben OBI, Abu NURUDEEN

The paper examines the effects of fiscal deficits and government debt on interest rates in Nigeria, by applying the Vector Auto-regression approach. The results confirm a positive interest rates effect of fiscal deficits and debt. It is recommended that government revenue base should be increased, while unnecessary spending should be discouraged. Moreover, where deficit financing is inevitable, it should be put into productive activities in order to create more employment opportunities, raise national output, and increase the living standard of the people. This should check interest rates from rising.

Application of a Fuzzy Goal Programming Approach with different Importance and Priorities to Aggregate Production Planning (p 317)
Mostefa BELMOKADDEM, Mohammed MEKIDICHE, Abdelkader SAHED

This study presents an application of a fuzzy goal programming approach with different importance and priorities (FGPIP) developed by Chen and Tsai (2001) to aggregate production planning (APP), for the state-run enterprise of iron manufactures non-metallic and useful substances (Société des bentonites d’Algérie-BENTAL-). The proposed model attempts to minimize total production and work force costs, carrying inventory costs and rates of changes in work force. The proposed model is solved by using LINGO computer package and getting optimal production plan. The proposed model yields an efficient compromise solution and the overall levels of Decision Making (DM) satisfaction with the multiple fuzzy goal values.

A Mathematical Deterministic Approach in Modeling National Economic Evolution (p 332)
Marius GIUCLEA, Ciprian POPESCU

In this work a regression model based on total least squares approach is presented. An application of the theoretical results in estimating the tendency of some countries economic evolution is given.

A Lower Bound for Project Completion Time Attained by Detailing Project Tasks and Redistributing Workloads (p 344 )
Zohar LASLO, Hagai ILANI, Baruch KEREN

We evaluate the possible benefit from improving the workload distribution in a directed acyclic graph (DAG) (e.g. a project network), by determining a lower bound for the project completion time. It is shown that a lower bound can be obtained by equally distributing the workload over the max-cut in the graph which separates the nodes 1 and n. It is also shown that for a complete n-node DAG, practitioners can quickly compute a lower bound for the project completion time. The max-cut can be found by any linear programming algorithm or by reducing the problem to the problem of finding a maximum matching in a bipartite graph. Our results can help planners and project managers to characterize the "ideal case" in which the optimal workload distribution among the arc networks minimizes the project completion time. That can be done for a non-complete DAG as well as for a complete one. A lower bound can then be used to evaluate the maximum potential for reducing the project completion time in real-life cases.

Stages for the Development of the Audit Processes of Distributed Informatics Systems (p 359 )
Marius POPA, Cristian TOMA

The paper presents elements regarding the way in which an audit process is carried out. The following issues are highlighted: audit concept, audit process flow, audit program and audit program management, classes of audit processes, audit process stages and activities, documents used to conclude an audit process. In this paper, the audit concept is defined together with its characteristics and it is described as activities flow in which there are some stages and steps that must be passed in an audit process. The audit program term is presented together with stages followed in such program management. The paper contains classifications of the audit processes depending on many criteria and it offers some details about the audit process classes. The audit process must be rigorously carried out in accordance to stages established by audit specialists and included in standardized documents. During the audit process, the audit team members generate and fill in some documents and forms to support the audit report. The conclusions included in the audit report are based on audit evidences and observations obtained in audit process.

E-Service Quality Management (p 372 )
Lorena BATAGAN, Adrian POCOVNICU, Sergiu CAPISIZU

A characteristic of today’s society is the increasing use of modern information and communication technologies in all areas. Computer applications, called e-services, are being developed to provide efficient access to services, electronically. Quality management systems are needed to provide a consistent way to select, evaluate, prioritize and plan the right e-services. The increasing use of e-services has raised the need to define standards and means to assess and assure quality. Investment in e-services is an important step to improve the quality of life in our dynamic society. After a brief introduction that describes the adoption of electronic services in individuals’ daily routine and the need for quality management, this article defines in its second chapter terms and concepts that are part of the Quality Management Framework. Then, the third chapter describes what e-services are, how they are classified and also their benefits to the user followed in the forth chapter by definition of means to evaluate and metrics to measure the quality of e-services. In the end, this article restates the benefits of e-services, the need for e-service quality management and unveils future development initiatives in domain.

Using Business Rules in Business Intelligence (p 382 )
Marinela MIRCEA, Anca ANDREESCU

Global recession brings new problems in nowadays business environment. In this period of economic recession, every organization must consider not only to survive, but also to improve its activity. Business Intelligence (BI) is one of the instruments that offer support in getting beyond crisis. If properly developed and implemented, BI can lead to improvements in decision making and to operational efficiency. This article is focused on the implementation of business rules, as an essential part in the development of BI systems, proper for the actual business climate and its underlying fluctuations.

Collaborative Systems Testing (p 394 )
Paul POCATILU, Cristian CIUREA

Collaborative systems are widely used today in various activity fields. Their complexity is high and the development involves numerous resources and costs. Testing collaborative systems has a very important role for the systems' success. In this paper we present taxonomy of collaborative systems. The collaborative systems are classified in many categories and there are a lot of criteria for collaborative systems classification. It is presented the importance of testing process in collaborative systems. The paper presents methods, techniques and builds metrics for collaborative systems testing, focusing on collaborative software.