JAQM Volume 6, Issue 1 - March 30, 2011

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Contents

Hazard Moral Models with Three States of Nature (p )
Daniela MARINESCU, Dumitru MIRON, Dumitru MARIN

The paper analyses a moral hazard model with three states of nature. The model is solved using as variables the informational rents and effort levels. Finally, we determine the features of the optimal contracts in asymmetric information.

On Fuzzy Regression Adapting Partial Least Squares (p )
Alper BASARAN, Biagio SIMONETTI, Luigi D’AMBRA

Partial Least Squared (PLS) regression is a model linking a dependent variable y to a set of X (numerical or categorical) explanatory variables. It can be obtained as a series of simple and multiple regressions of simple and multiple regressions. PLS is an alternative to classical regression model when there are many variables or the variables are correlated. On the other hand, an alternative method to regression in order to model data has been studied is called Fuzzy Linear Regression (FLR). FLR is one of the modelling techniques based on fuzzy set theory. It is applied to many diversified areas such as engineering, biology, finance and so on. Development of FLR follows mainly two paths. One of which depends on improving the parameter estimation methods. This enables to compute more reliable and more accurate parameter estimation in fuzzy setting. Second of which is related to applying these methods to data, which usually do not follow strict assumptions. The application point of view of FLR has not been examined widely except outlier case. For example, it has not been widely examined how FLR behaves under the multivariate case. To overcome such a problem in classic setting, one of the methods that are practically useful is PLS. In this paper, FLR is examined based on application point of view when it has several explanatory variables by adapting PLS.

Information Entropy and Occurrence of Extreme Negative Returns (p )
Daniel Traian PELE

This study is intended to investigate the connection between the complexity of a capital market and the occurrence of dramatic decreases in transaction prices. The work hypothesis is that such episodes, characterized by sudden and dramatic decreases in transaction prices mostly occur in period of market inefficiency, when the level of complexity reaches a local minimum. In this regard, we introduce a complexity estimator, through differential entropy. The connection between the market complexity level and the appearance of extreme returns is illustrated in a logistic regression model.

Technology Adoption, Industrial Structure and Growth in Emerging Economies (p )
Ali CHEBBI, Sami KHEDHIRI

This paper explores the link which is often neglected in the literature between the industrial structure and the aggregate economic growth in emerging economies (EE) that are implementing an openness trade policy. Based on the Schumpeterian technological paradigm concept, we show the relevance of the technology adoption hypothesis rather than the innovation hypothesis in an EE’s context. We develop an endogenous deterministic growth model for small open economies in which domestic agents adopt technology incorporated in equipment import. Through the model, we prove that equipment import, technological externalities, and the fall in relative prices are the sources of openness growth effects. In this paper we determine endogenously the minimal efficiency threshold of entry and exit dynamics in the domestic industrial structure within an endogenous growth framework. We show that the consumption goods diversity improves the growth rate of consumption and welfare by its negative action on the surviving firms monopoly power. We argue that for intermediate goods, the agents heterogeneity is negatively correlated with stationary state growth rate. From an economic policy point of view, it would be recommended to intervene by improving the performance of the domestic firms before implementing the trade openness policy, and after its implementation by controlling the markets to avoid the monopolistic structure that is negatively correlated with economic growth at the aggregate level.

Analysis and Modeling of a Socio-technological Framework for Scientific Collaboration (p )
Cristina NICULESCU, Anca Daniela IONITA

The scientific development of different disciplines at the beginning of the 21th century can only be conceived in an interdisciplinary context. This fact implies both an in-depth documentation and cooperation among the scientists in the diverse knowledge spheres. Knowledge workers are not linked to a unique organization, but they are in touch with persons belonging to other organizations. In this complex relation system, the employers are involved concurrently in similar working situations, but, at the same time, they are permanently learning. That is why, Internet technologies are improved to sustain this net society, being adapted, at the same time, to individual needs and profiles. The creation of conditions for organizational culture of academic communities’ development presupposes a suitable socio-technological framework. The paper analyzes the challenges and introduces models for a knowledge management experimental system for scientific communities, proposing the use of Service Oriented Architecture for the composition of knowledge, defining a modular architecture and an algorithm of collaborative knowledge generation.

Intelligent Solution for Future Development (p )
Lorena BATAGAN,

This paper discusses whether the ability to use intelligent solutions in a locality (a transportation system smarter, faster and more effective interventions in emergencies, a more intelligent management of water and electricity, a more intelligent administration and health and education systems more intelligent one) is a significant part of future development.

Geostatistical Analysis of Time Series: An Exploratory Analysis of Climatologic and Ecological Data using a Spatial Instrument (p )
Alexandru PETRISOR, Sorin CHEVAL, Victor ZINEVICI, Laura PARPALA

The extensive use of the Geographical Information Systems, but also of their extensions, in fields that do not necessary connect to geography, but allow for the implementation of methodologies based on the analysis of spatially referenced data, had resulted into new applications and methodological approaches to answer specific research questions. This paper proposes such an extension from the real space define by longitude and latitude to a virtual space defined by two time parameters, month and year, in order to reveal specific temporal patterns of climatologic and ecological phenomena. The methodology is applied in two studies, one aiming to analyze temperature and precipitation data in Romania over a long period, and the other to analyze the effects of anthropic impact and ecological restoration on the density of specific groups of aquatic organisms. In the first study, the method was able to detect climate hazards, while in the second the results had shown different behaviors of analyzed groups, relevant to their ecology. In both cases, the proposed methodology proves its potential for being used as an exploratory research tool in climatology, ecology, and other fields as well.

Statistical Determination of the Sequence and Chronology of the Eruption of the First Permanent Molars and Incisors in Romanian Children (p )
Victor FERARU, Anca Maria RADUCANU

Teeth eruption is a dynamic, genetically dictated process which is a part of the odontogenesis and comprises all of the tooth’s movement from the bone crypt where it formed until reaching the occlusal plane and starting its function. Chronologically normal eruption is defined as the situation in which dental eruption takes place at time moments placed around the medium eruption age calculated on large population samples. Determining the medium eruption age of the teeth emerging in the first stage of the permanent teeth eruption (incisors and first molar) in children from Bucharest, Romania. The retrospective transversal study was conducted on a sample of 2139 Caucasian children aged between 5 and 10 years who presented to the Paedodontics Clinic for consultation and treatment in the period 2006-2011. The statistical analysis used specific descriptive and interferential (confidence intervals) methods. The order and timing of eruption in girls was: IClo (5.8-5.10 years), M1lo (5.10-6 years), M1up (6-6.2 years), ICup and ILlo (7-7.2 years) and ICup (8-8.2 years). (p=0.01) The order and timing of eruption in girls was: IClo, M1up and M1lo (6-6.2 years), ICup (7-7.2 years), ILlo (7.2-7.4 years) and ILup (8.4-8.6 years). (p=0.01) The results of the study confirm data from literature in terms of faster eruption in girls. Permanent incisors and first molars erupt between 5.8 and 8.2 years in girls and between 6 and 8.6 years in boys.

The Investment in Education and in Continuous Training, at EU-27 Level (p )
Stelian STANCU, Oana Madalina PREDESCU, George Viorel VOINESCU, Anca Domnica LUPU

The fundamental role that education has in the development of human fundamental values is to form, nurture and develop spirit. The aim of this paper is to highlight the role of the investment in education and continuous training at EU level. The results presented in the article, are in most part obtained on the basis of specific data series sat EU level, data that have been considered significant. The techniques used, besides those of elementary statistic, are a series of econometric techniques base don autoregressive models, systems with simultaneous equations, time series etc. The major findings drawn refer to the following aspects: the early XX-th century European Union was clearly surpassed by the North American States regarding the development dynamic, productivity and economic competitiveness, the discrepancies being continuously amplified; the reasons for the low European performances in comparison to the North American States are found in obvious inconsistencies between the qualifications offered by the actual education systems and the labor market needs; the low level of participation to education of the working population; in the European countries with less rigid waging systems, an extra education year increases the level of the individual wage with approximately 6,5% to 9%; tertiary education is recognized as being a crucial strategy for stimulating innovation, productivity and growth in a knowledge-based society etc. The basic conclusions drawn, are strongly related with the following aspects: the employment rate grows according to the education level attained, even when it comes to elderly persons; the Europeans with ages between 55 and 64 have big gaps regarding qualification and training, although everyone agrees that the persons with higher education are easier to be absorbed by the labor market, earn more money and benefit from a better social status; even though there are less and less children, the enrollments in education have not generally decreased; the widening of the European Union has not eased, but rather aggravated all these problems because even the recently integrated countries have a negative natural population growth; preschool education helps the children that come from disadvantaged families at socio-economic level to continue their studies and not least the fact that the immigrants are not well represented in education and additional training, presenting an increased rate of withdrawal from studies.

Subjective Probability Assessment of Organisational Risks in Education – An Approach to School Policies (p )
Ovidiu MANTALUTA

This paper proposes a method for consultants dealing with organisational problems in schools. The method is useful for school governing bodies too, subjective risk assessment of the key issues of the school being a way to generate strategic organisational answers/papers. The method is based on the Risk Priority Number (RPN) calculation for events or situations having negative impact on school’s organisation.

The Religious Affiliation Structure of the Villages from Romania (p )
Claudiu HERTELIU, Maria Antoanela FARCASANU

This article aims to sketch some typologies of Romanian communes from the perspective of religious affiliation of the population. All data used comes from the last population and housing census (2002) from which information is available. The main new element refers to the village level approach according to the historical regions they belong to. The most heterogeneous communes are the ones from Transylvania while the ones from Oltenia, Muntenia and Moldova are on the opposite side.