ISSN 1842-4562
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Journal Home > Volume 4, Issue 1 - March 30, 2009

JAQM Volume 4, Issue 1 - March 30, 2009

Quantitative Methods in Enterprises Behavior Analysis under Risk an Uncertainty.



Contents


Entreprises Behavior in Cooperative and Punishment‘s Repeated Negotiations (p 1)
Mihai ROMAN

Our paper considers a “negotiation game” between two players which combines the features of two-players alternating offers bargaining and repeated games. Generally, the negotiation game admits a large number of equilibriums but some of which involve delay and inefficiency. Thus, complexity and bargaining in tandem may offer an explanation for cooperation and efficiency in repeated games. The Folk Theorem of repeated games is a very used result that shows that if players are enough patience, then it is possible to obtain a cooperative equilibrium of the infinite repeated game. By this paper, I demonstrate a new folk theorem for finitely repeated games and I also present the new found conditions (under stage number and minimum discount factor value) such that players cooperate at least one period in cooperative-punishment repeated games. Finally, I present a study-case for Cournot oligopoly situation for n enterprises behavior under finitely and infinitely repeated negotiations. In this case, I found that discount factor depends only on players number, not on different player’s payoffs.

Modeling Research Project Risks with Fuzzy Maps (p 17)
Constanta Nicoleta BODEA, Maria Iuliana DASCALU

The authors propose a risks evaluation model for research projects. The model is based on fuzzy inference. The knowledge base for fuzzy process is built with a causal and cognitive map of risks. The map was especially developed for research projects, taken into account their typical lifecycle. The model was applied to an e-testing research project: the probability of not obtaining quality results was computed considering the over-budget sum and the quality level of research idea. The computed risk is situated on the highest level in risks map. A software system for evaluating risks in e-testing research project was also developed. The research was funded by the Ministry of Education and Research, National University Research Council, Grant PCE_ID_873.

Increasing E-Trust: A Solution to Minimize Risk in E Government Adoption (p 31 )
Sofia Elena COLESCA

In the last decade, governments around the world have been working to capture the vast potential of the Internet to improve government processes. However, the success of these efforts depends, to a great extent, on how well the targeted users for such services, citizens in general, make use of them. Even e-government brings a certain level of transparency and offers good scope for innovative ways of servicing, some people remain suspicious of IT use in relation with government. For this reason, the purpose of the presented study was to identify what factors could affect the citizens’ trust in e government services. The study was conducted by surveying 793 citizens from all Romanian regions. The findings indicate that citizen’s higher perception of technological and organisational trustworthiness, the quality and usefulness of e government services, the Internet experience and propensity to trust, directly enhanced the trust in e-government. Opposite, age and privacy concerns have a negative influence over trust.

Developments in Analysis of Multiple Response Survey Data in Categorical Data Analysis: The Case of Enterprise System Implementation in Large North American Firms (p 45 )
Kayvan M. LAVASSANI, Bahar MOVAHEDI, Vinod KUMAR

This paper explores the analysis of survey data with multiple response variables. After describing the problem with analysis of multiple response variables, the historical developments in identifying and analyzing multiple response variables, based on an extensive literature review, are discussed. After we explored the developments in this area from 1986 to 2008, we employed the first Order Rao-Scott Corrected Chi-Square to analyze a recently collected set of data on the practice of Enterprise System (ES) implementation among North American large corporations. The data analyzes the success of ES implementation, challenges of ES implementation, and the success of utilization of ES across two categories of firms: process-oriented and not process-oriented. The first Order Rao-Scott Corrected Chi-Square confirms that process-oriented firms in our sample are more successful in implementing the ES, face fewer challenges in implementing the ES, and are more successful in utilizing the ES.

A Model for Coordinating Negotiations among Virtual Enterprises (p 54)
Adina CRETAN

This paper presents a model for coordinating negotiation processes in concurrent inter-organizational alliances. The IT system preserves the autonomy of organizations grouped in an alliance while enabling concurrency of their activities, flexibility of their negotiations and dynamic evolution of their environment. The purpose of this work is to offer support for small and medium enterprises which cannot or do not want to fulfill a big contract alone. This approach is illustrated by a sample scenario where partners are printshops grouped in an alliance to better accomplish customers’ requests.

The Empirical Analysis of the Effects of Economic Growth and Exchange Rate on Current Account Deficit: Romania and Turkey Samples (p 69)
Fuat LEBE, Selim KAYHAN, Uğur ADIGÜZEL, Burak YİĞİT

The aim of this study is to analyse the effects of economic growth and real effective exchange rate on current account deficit for Romania and Turkey using Structural Vector Autoregressive Analysis (SVAR). For this purpose, GDP, Real Effective Exchange Rate and Balance of Current Account Data of Turkey and Romania between the dates including 1997q2-2007q3 were used. Consequently, the shock of economical growth has revealed 82 % of variance fault estimation for Turkey and 79 % for Romania. Thus, It can be said that the changeability of economical growth is the most important reason for national current account deficit for both countries.

About the Impossibility Theorem for Indicators Aggregation (p 82)
Daniel Traian PELE

This paper presents some aspects related to the issues of aggregating economic indicators. Departing from the research of Gh. Păun (1983) we will prove a theorem which states that under certain, natural assumptions, it is impossible to obtain an optimum aggregation. Unlike the original work of Păun, in this paper we are giving a rather simple proof of this theorem.

Statistical Analysis of the Different Socio-Economic Factors Affecting the Education of N-W.F.P (Pakistan) (p 88 )
Atta Ur RAHMAN, Salah UDDIN

A number of students in the urban and rural areas of N-W.F.P (Pakistan) and control group were collected to examine the various socio-economic factors which affect our education system. A logistic regression was applied to analyze the data and to select a parsimonious model. The response variable for the study is literate (illiterate) person(s) and the risk factors are Father literacy [FE], Father income[FI] Parents’ attitude towards education[PA], Mother literacy [ME], Present examination system [PE], Present education curriculum [PC]. The results of the analysis show that the factors Father Education combined with Parents’ Attitude towards Education, Father Income combined with Mother Education, Father Income combined with Parents’ Attitude towards Education are some of the factors which affect the education in N-W.F.P. Thus we concluded that there are a number of socioeconomic factors which affect our education.

Specialisation and Concentration Patterns in the Romanian Economy (p 95 )
Zizi GOSCHIN, Daniela Luminita CONSTANTIN, Monica ROMAN, Bogdan Vasile ILEANU

The economic specialisation of the regions and the spatial concentration of the economic activities are reflecting the same reality from two different perspectives. Our research is an attempt to capture the main patterns and the evolution of regional specialisation and sectoral concentration in the Romanian economy for selected years during 1996-2007 period, on the basis of the Gross Value Added and employment data, by branch and by region. We employed standard statistical measures of specialisation and concentration, combined with methods envisaging the amplitude and the speed of structural changes in order to highlight the various sides of these two complex phenomena.

Statistical Evaluation of Highly Arsenic Contaminated Groundwater in South-Western Bangladesh (p 112 )
Tauhid-Ur-RAHMAN, Akira MANO, Keiko UDO, Yoshinobu ISHIBASHI

High Arsenic (As) in natural groundwater in most of the shallow sandy aquifers of the South-Western part of Bangladesh has recently been focused as a serious environmental concern. This paper is aiming to illustrate the statistical evaluation of the Arsenic polluted groundwater to identify the correlation of that As with other participating groundwater parameters so that the As contamination level can easily be predicted by analyzing only those parameters. Multivariate data analysis done with the collected groundwaters from the 67 tube-wells of the contaminated aquifer suggests that As may have substantial positive correlations with Fe, Mn, Al, DOC, HCO3 and PO4 whereas noticeable negative relationships have also been observed with SO4, Cl and NO3-N. Based on these relationships, a multiple linear regression model has been developed that incorporates seven most influential groundwater parameters as the independent predictor variables to estimate the As contamination level in the polluted groundwater. This model could also be a suggestive tool while designing the As removal scheme for the affected groundwater.

Book Review (p 122 )
Bogdan Catalin VINTILA

Book Review on
Quality Management and Value Engineering ("Managementul Calitatii si Ingineria Valorii")
by Ion IONITA
ASE Printing House, Bucharest, 2008

Book Review (p 124 )
Claudiu HERTELIU

Book Signal on
Gauss' Bell Rings Forever (“Clopotul lui Gaus Rasuna Vesnic”),
by Viorel Gh. VODA
Editura Universitara, Bucharest, 2009