Natality Impact on Recent Demographic Ageing Dynamics in Romania

Constanta MIHAESCU
Ileana NICULESCU-ARON
Dana PETRE (COLIBABA)

Keywords

Demographic ageing, fertility decline, statistical model, age distribution, population decrease, young population, elderly people, population dynamics

Abstract

The decrease of Romanian natality after the abrogation of the pronatalist-coercive legislation at the end of 1989 was a natural and expected reaction. The surprise was generated by the speed and the magnitude of the fertility decrease and, thus, of the natality, which not even the specialists managed to predict. In this paper we elaborate a statistical model, which evaluates the impact of this evolution on the acceleration of the demographic ageing process.