Implementing Beta-Distribution in Project Management

Doron GREENBERG
Dimitri GOLENKO-GINZBURG

Keywords

random activity duration, time – activity beta-distribution, operating by means of a single processor, convergence to a beta-distribution family

Abstract

A research is undertaken to justify the use of beta-distribution p.d.f. for man-machine type activities under random disturbances. The case of using one processor, i.e., a single resource unit, is examined. It can be proven theoretically that under certain realistic assumptions the random activity – time distribution satisfies the beta p.d.f. Changing more or less the implemented assumptions, we may alter to a certain extent the structure of the p.d.f. At the same time, its essential features (e.g. asymmetry, unimodality, etc.) remain unchanged. The outlined above research can be applied to semi-automated activities, where the presence of man-machine influence under random disturbances is, indeed, very essential. Those activities are likely to be considered in organization systems (e.g. in project management), but not in fully automated plants.