ISSN 1842-4562
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Implementing Beta-Distribution in Project Management


Doron GREENBERG
Dimitri GOLENKO-GINZBURG


Keywords

random activity duration, time activity beta-distribution, operating by means of a single processor, convergence to a beta-distribution family

Abstract

A research is undertaken to justify the use of beta-distribution p.d.f. for man-machine type activities under random disturbances. The case of using one processor, i.e., a single resource unit, is examined. It can be proven theoretically that under certain realistic assumptions the random activity time distribution satisfies the beta p.d.f. Changing more or less the implemented assumptions, we may alter to a certain extent the structure of the p.d.f. At the same time, its essential features (e.g. asymmetry, unimodality, etc.) remain unchanged. The outlined above research can be applied to semi-automated activities, where the presence of man-machine influence under random disturbances is, indeed, very essential. Those activities are likely to be considered in organization systems (e.g. in project management), but not in fully automated plants.



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