JAQM - Journal of Applied Quantitative Methods





ISSN 1842-4562
Member of DOAJ

Epidemiological Aspects and Risk Factors in the Outcome of Variceal Eso-Gastric Bleeding at Cirrhosis Patients


Vlad Denis CONSTANTIN
Bogdan SOCEA
George SIRETEANU
Florian POPA


Keywords

upper GI Bleeding, cirrhosis, esophageal varices, risk+factors, epidemiology

Abstract

The epidemiological aspects and risk factors in the outcome of upper gastrointestinal bleeding were analyzed in a prospective study of 268 patients with liver cirrhosis. The hemorrhagic episode has a negative prognostic in the immediate outcome, with 96 deaths (35.82%), p<0,01.
In the acute phase of bleeding appeared 36 deaths (13.40 %); others were registered after recurrent hemorrhage (48 cases, 17.23%), or after sclerotherapy or surgical treatment of varices (12 cases, 4.47%).
Patients in advanced stage of cirrhosis – Child C stage – (n=124), registered the highest death toll (n=76, 61.29%, p<0.01).

High potential risk factors responsible for death included: altered general status (p<0.01), jaundice (p<0.01), increased seric level of total bilirubin (over 3 mg%, p<0.01), encephalopathy (p<0.05). Among these risk factors, the highest sensitivity belongs to jaundice (83.33%), and total highest positive predictive value belongs to seric and total bilirubin (over 3mg %), with 64.28% value.

 



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