Modelling Unemployment Rate Using Box-Jenkins Procedure

Keywords

Unemployment rate, Box-Jenkins methodology, ARIMA models, Romania

Abstract

This paper aims to modelling the evolution of unemployment rate using the Box-Jenkins methodology during the period 1998-2007 monthly data. The empirical study relieves that the most adequate model for the unemployment rate is ARIMA (2,1,2). Using the model, we forecasts the values of unemployment rate for January and February 2008.Therefore, the unemployment rate for January 2008 is 4.06%.

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