Demographic Trends and Population Aging in Romania (1977–2011): A Quantitative Analysis of Census Data

Andreea-Elena VOROVENCI
Dan DRAGOMIRESCU

Keywords

Population aging, Demographic trends, Romania, Fertility decline, Aging index, Census data, IPUMS, Socio-demographic change

Abstract

This paper analyzes demographic trends and population aging in Romania between 1977 and 2011, using harmonized census microdata from IPUMS International. The results reveal a sustained process of demographic aging, driven by declining fertility, increased life expectancy, and international migration. Key indicators—including age structure, median and mean age, aging index, and fertility levels—demonstrate significant shifts in Romania’s demographic profile. Rural and peripheral areas are particularly affected by population decline and accelerated aging, while urban centers exhibit growing demographic concentration. Additionally, disparities among vulnerable groups such as the Roma population, and mismatches in elderly care infrastructure, highlight the social dimensions of demographic change. The findings underscore the urgency of policy responses aimed at mitigating regional inequalities, supporting intergenerational solidarity, and ensuring the sustainability of social protection systems in the face of long-term demographic decline.