Predicting the total number of confirmed cases in Bucharest using the Prophet package in R

Andreea MIRICA
Marian NECULA
Bogdan Ionut CHIPER

Keywords

COVID-19, predict coronavirus cases, Bucharest, software R

Abstract

Considering the importance of predictable data based on tested methodology, the present study was focused on validating the usage of open source software R and the open source package PROPHET to estimate future number of COVID-19 cases in Bucharest. A time series of real cases over sixty days in April-June 2020 interval was used to predict the cases over next seven days. The source code used generated results with a Mean Absolute Percentage Error of 0.026