 |
|
|||
On the Distribution of Uganda Parliamentary Seats: An Interesting Application of Beta Distribution
Keywords
Fair Representation, Members of Parliament, Beta Distribution, Uganda, Ethnic Groups
Abstract
The paper uses a combination of different statistical analysis to analyze the distribution of Members of Parliament across different ethnic groups in Uganda. The paper uses national population data obtained from Uganda National Bureau of Statistics (2016), data from Parliament of Uganda and some data from the global parliamentary report (2012). The overall results indicates that although some ethnic groups appear to be under/overrepresented relative to their population size, based on both expected value and international benchmark criteria, these absolute discrepancies appear not to be statistically significant based on estimation of beta distribution. Further robustness checks using the 2-3 standard deviation tests indicate that all the absolute discrepancies of the observed numbers of Members of Parliament whether above or below the expected number are not more than 3standards deviations. These results suggest that discrepancies noted are not significant. The paper concludes by suggesting some policy recommendations.