The Application of Grey System Theory in Predicting the Number of Deaths of Women by Committing Suicide- A Case Study

Keywords

Woman suicide, Grey system theory, GM (1, 1) model, Verhulst model, GM (2, 1) model, Forecasting

Abstract

Sexual harassment, dowry problem, torture, importation of girls, kidnapping, rape and other social problems are forced a woman to commit suicide. These risk factors include man dominated social structure, insecurity of woman, unequal priority level of man and woman, family problems, un-employment etc. Indian constitution offers equal rights for male and female. So the problem of woman suicide becomes a complicated one that restricts the development of country and threatens for the parallelism of male-female ratio. Considering the complexity and uncertainty of the influencing factors on woman suicides, suicide forecasting can be regarded as a grey system with unknown and known information, so it can be analyzed by grey system theory. Grey models require only a limited amount of data to estimate the behavior of unknown systems. In this paper, the original predicted values of woman suicides are separately obtained by the GM (1, 1) model, the Verhulst model and the GM (2, 1) model. The results obtained from these models on predicting woman suicide show that the forecasting accuracy of the GM (1, 1) is better than the Verhulst model and the GM (2, 1) model. Then, the GM (1, 1) model is proposed to predict woman suicide in Indian context.

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