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JAQM Volume 14, Issue 1 - March 30, 2019
Systemic Risk of Non Performing Loans Market. The Italian case
Anna Maria D’ARCANGELIS, Giulia ROTUNDO
The paper considers the systemic risk due to the Non-Performing Loans in the balance sheets of banks. Using empirical data on Non-Performing Loans of Italian Banks and following the proposal of securitization of problematic loans, we propose the use of a bipartite network to simulate a hypothetical market of asset classes and investors. A default cascade dynamic runs when asset classes are hit by multiple shocks and propagation increases losses faced by investors through both direct and indirect exposure. Our results show that the degree of differentiation of the market, with a parameter that controls the sensitivity to losses of investors, is crucial to determine the systemic risk of this kind of market.
Causal Relationship between Current Account Deficit Rate and Industrial Production Growth in Turkey: Mixed-Frequency VAR Approach
Rahmi YAMAK, Nebiye YAMAK, Serkan SAMUT
In this study, the causal relationship between current account deficit rate and industrial production growth in Turkey is investigated by applying the mixed-frequency VAR approach developed by Ghysels et al. (2016). The data span from January 2005 to September 2018 for monthly industrial production index and from the first quarter of 2005 to the third quarter of 2018 for the quarterly current account deficit rate. Granger causality tests suggest that there is only one-way causal relationship between in the variables. It is running from industrial production to current account. Impulse response functions confirm the same causal relationship. Based on causality tests and impulse response functions, it can be concluded that the main reason for the recent improvement in the current account deficit is the contraction in industrial production in Turkey.
A Quasi Garima Distribution
Rama SHANKER, Kamlesh Kumar SHUKLA, Simon SIUM, Daniel WELDAY
In the present paper, a two-parameter quasi Garima distribution (QGD) which includes one parameter exponential distribution and Garima distribution introduced by Shanker (2016 c) as special cases, has been proposed. Its statistical and mathematical properties including moments and moments based measures, hazard rate function, mean residual life function, stochastic ordering, mean deviations, Bonferroni and Lorenz curves, order statistics, Renyi entropy measure and stress-strength reliability have also been discussed. The method of moments and the method of maximum likelihood estimation have been discussed for estimating the parameters of QGD. Finally, the goodness of fit of the QGD has been discussed with a real lifetime dataset and the fit is quite satisfactory over one parameter and two-parameter lifetime distributions.
Analysis of the Risk Factors of Dental Caries
According to World Health Organization data and statistics, dental caries is the leading oral disease by the frequency of occurrence. Tooth decay affects the people worldwide, becoming a major burden for the oral health. A large number of studies in the field have identified a series of risk factors that are responsible for causing dental caries. Therefore, in order to prevent this condition, we should put an emphasis on oral hygiene, healthy diet and food habits, frequency of visiting an oral health professional and relevant sources of information on oral health. For the study upon the risk factors concerning dental health, I applied a survey questionnaire on a sample of 514 adult people (over 18 years old). If we analyze the results, we can observe that 76.07 percent of the survey respondents change their toothbrush every three months, but 17.51 percent do not use additional hygiene practices. Regarding the dental visits, 44.16 percent of the survey respondents visit their dental practitioner only when they are in pain and less for a regular dental exam. Concerning the fruit and vegetables consumption, 31% of the survey respondents state that they have a poor consumption. To sum up, based on all the questionnaire data, there is a low interest of the population in their oral health, due to the lack of information on the risk factors. Despite the many oral health promotion campaigns, the results are not yet notable. It is significant that these campaigns should continue without interruption, differentiated by age groups, involving dentists, dental nurses, school teachers and the authorities.